This might surprise people, but betting on the NFL Draft is far and away the best event of the year to wager on. The reason is that it’s an information market. These types of markets are the easiest to make money on because no game has to be played. When you bet on an NFL game, you can have the best handicap in the world and have a massive edge according to your numbers. Yet, so much can go wrong. All it takes is a few things you can’t possibly account for in your handicap, like one cornerback to trip, a field goal kicker getting the yips, a few bad calls, and so many other possibilities for your bet to go sideways. Betting on the NFL Draft doesn’t have that type of variance. Once you know a team is keyed in on a certain player or position, that’s it. Obviously, reading the tea leaves from plugged-in reporters and getting good information is vital.
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These odds are courtesy of FanDuel sportsbook.
Prior to the Panthers trading up to the No. 1 overall pick, Stroud was actually an underdog behind Bryce Young and hovered between +200 and +500. After the trade, Stroud re-opened as the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick at -115. This was instantly steamed and reached -400 at one point. It settled in around -200-to-250 for the past two weeks until recently. Reputable NFL insider Daniel Jeremiah listed Bryce Young at No. 1 in his latest mock draft, and ESPN’s Todd McShay mentioned that he was hearing Bryce Young would go No. 1. This has driven Stroud’s odds down to -150, but after Ohio State’s Pro Day, his odds shot back up to -250. At this point, I would still strongly lean towards Stroud being the pick.
Bryce Young was anticipated to be the No. 1 overall pick coming into the draft process, but as soon as the Texans miraculously beat the Colts in Week 17, the Bears slid into the No. 1 spot. This muddied the waters with the Bears still rolling with Justin Fields on his rookie contract. Despite having a quarterback, Young was still the favorite to go No. 1 overall in anticipation. Yet his odds tanked when the Panthers traded up because of multiple media members and rumors swirling surrounding the Panthers‘ preferences. Youngs’ odds will likely continue to shift throughout Pro Days this week.
Richardson was 50/1 to go first overall a month ago and got as low as +300. His odds have started to climb back up with the recent Bryce Young hype and Stroud remaining the favorite. Richardson saw his odds shoot up after an impressive performance at the NFL Scouting Combine. He’ll have another shot to flash his insane upside at his Pro Day on March 30th.
Levis is still worth listing here despite the long odds. Levis saw some steam in the pre-combine process, reaching as high as +500 to be the first overall pick. This was during a time when the NFL Draft media was fawning over his 2021 tape and upside. That hype has largely subsided, and Levis doesn’t appear to be on the Panthers‘ radar for the first overall pick.
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