Click arrow to expand WGC-Dell Match Play odds via bet365
|Si Woo Kim
|Min Woo Lee
It’s sad to say that this is the last time we’ll be making WGC-Dell Match Play picks, but that’s the reality we live in.
With how the PGA Tour is reshaping its schedule, we’ll no longer have this spectacular stop in Austin, which serves as the final major stop before the Masters. How big is this year’s Match Play event? Even Rory McIlroy is here, having skipped this event over the past few years.
Our staff is all over this event at Austin Country Club. We have three outright picks and one bet on a certain Australian to have a big week.
Check out our favorite WGC-Dell Match Play picks for this week below.
Favorite We’re Backing
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Taylor Montgomery
- Murphy: Cam Davis
- Vincenzi: Corey Conners
- Aguiar: Tom Hoge
- Sobel: Xander Schauffele
- Murphy: Keegan Bradley
- Vincenzi: Scottie Scheffler
- Aguiar: Jordan Spieth
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Ryan Fox
- Murphy: Adam Hadwin
- Vincenzi: Tommy Fleetwood
- Aguiar: Taylor Montgomery
Our Best Bets
Sobel: Jason Day Top-4 Finish +750 (DK)
I like how Day has shown form in every start this year; I like that he’s a former two-time champion of this event; and I like his potential road to the semifinals.
If you want to be a bit more cautious, you can play him to simply win his group (+190). I similarly like Cameron Young (+162), Tony Finau (+162) and Max Homa (+170), if you want a few plus-money group favorites before taking a chance on the likes of Montgomery (+300) and Fox (+300).
Murphy: Jordan Spieth +2500 (PointsBet)
As a friend always tells me in situations like this, “the story writes itself.”
Jordan Spieth was a big fan of bringing the Dell Match Play to Austin Country Club, a city he refers to as his second home after his years at the University of Texas. It would be very fitting to see him be the player that sends it out with a victory and it helps quite a bit that he is playing some really good golf too.
I would also argue that his game is possibly more suited for this type of a match-play event, where his errant shots aren’t as penalizing as they can be in stroke play. S
pieth has been much better with his ball striking in two of the past three weeks and with his short game, that can be a dagger to any opponent’s confidence in a match-play set up.
The number isn’t as juicy as I hoped, but that’s to be expected in a small field event like this. Spieth has everything trending in the right direction and it would be no surprise to see him breakthrough in 2023 at a course he knows so well.
Vincenzi: Tyrrell Hatton +2500 (DraftKings)
Tyrrell Hatton checks all of the boxes for me this week. The Englishman is arriving at Austin Country Club in terrific form, having finishes of fourth (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and second (The Players) in two of the strongest fields of the season.
Austin CC should be an even better fit for the 31-year-old than the last few courses he’s competed on. This course is on the shorter side and has typically been kind to shorter hitters off the tee who are great around the green players and putters. In years past, we’ve seen players with similar skill sets such as Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner and Matt Kuchar have a great deal of success in the event.
In their past 24 rounds, there are few players in the field playing better than Hatton. He ranks among the top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better Gained, Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermudagrass and Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye designs. In his most recent start at The Players, Hatton gained 8.4 strokes on approach, which ranked third in that elite field.
Tyrrell Hatton is the ideal type of golfer to win a match play event. He is currently in top form, is a great course fit, has Ryder Cup experience and has a competitive mentality that should suit him in this format.
Aguiar: Tom Hoge +6500
Bracket-styled contests will allow us unique ways to gain exposure to different players in this field. Sure, you can consider backing Hoge to win this event at almost 70-1 and not worry about this part of the answer. However, rollover options exist, meaning to bet a golfer in their first match and seizing all those winnings if the bet hits before selecting them again in match two (or to win the group).
From there, it becomes an all-or-nothing game from the “Sweet 16” until the end if that player can survive, but the reason I like this strategy is because it allows us to generate cash-out equity that can have us remove (some or all) of a stake in a player.
Conventional outrights leave us stuck with a lack of maneuverability, but if Hoge can get through his group (the second hardest in the field), the bottom three pods beneath him are ripe for the picking.