The unstoppable force that is Scottie Scheffler has logged three quality finishes to kick off 2024 and now returns to TPC Scottsdale looking to make history. We break down his chances in our full Waste Management Phoenix Open betting preview below.
Feb 8, 2024 2:34 PM ET
Read Time: 4 min
While this year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open won’t possess designated event status as it did a year ago, this is still one of the best weeks in golf. So, buckle up.
And while TPC Scottsdale already presents maybe the most electric viewing experience on the PGA Tour, the 2024 edition will have just a little bit more allure as Scottie Scheffler looks to complete the first PGA Tour three-peat since 2011.
The back-to-back champion enters the week with short +500 golf odds despite a field that certainly isn’t lacking star power.
We break it all down in our full Waste Management Phoenix Open betting preview below, with free golf picks also to come later in the week.
Best 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open picks
Live odds to win the 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open
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Waste Management Phoenix Open picks and predictions
Erik van Rooyen Top 40 (+110)
Erik van Rooyen missed about a million cuts last year but it’s clear that slump is behind him. He’s played 11 straight weekends since the start of September and the results have been consistent if not impressive.
The Mayakoba victory in November is obviously the highlight of the bunch but on top of no missed cuts, that 11-event stretch includes four Top 20s and nine Top 30s, the latest of which was a T20 finish at the shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week.
He’s gained true strokes on approach in eight of his last nine Shotlink-tracked events and even went +4.24 shots gained or better in half of those. That sharp iron play has him 11thin this week’s field on approach.
While his missed cut and T50 results here at TPC Scottsdale are far from inspiring, both came whilst completely out of form. Expect much better from the South African this week.
Grillo would be a clear odds-on favorite in this group if not for his lousy track record here in Phoenix. A T22 finish in 2021 is the best among eight tries in a collection that also includes three missed cuts and nothing else better than T33.
However, this bet on Grillo is just as much a bet against the guys he needs to beat. In this case, that’s Jhonattan Vegas, Camilo Villegas, and Nicolas Echavarria. That trio has made 10 starts in 2024 and the results are grim: five missed cuts and only one finish better than T50 (Echavarria T25 out of 59 at Kapalua).
Vegas did finish T23 here a season ago and T10 in 2019 but his current form of three straight missed cuts simply doesn’t align with that of those finishes. Villegas finished T24 in 2017 but has also missed the cut in three of his last five Phoenix Open tries. Echavarria has never played here.
That brings me back to the selling point of this wager: Grillo’s T7, T20, and T14 finishes during the West Coast Swing. That form runs circles around the rest of the group and it’s the reason I’m willing to look past his shaky TPC Scottsdale resume. I expect that recent form to prevail.
The odds board sees World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in a tier of his own as he looks to make history this week. He’ll look to become the first PGA Tour player to complete a three-peat on the PGA Tour since Steve Stricker at the 2011 John Deere Classic.
His unwavering consistency has continued into the new year with T5, T17, and T6 (last week at Pebble Beach) finishes to open 2024. The ball-striking numbers are unmatched and an average or better week with the putter means a serious chance at victory.
Justin Thomas’ bounceback season is well underway and his wicked form to kick off 2024 finds him second on the board at 10/1 and as short as 9/1. His T6 at Pebble Beach marked his fifth straight finish of sixth or better dating back to the Fortinet in September.
Max Homa (T39 here last year), Jordan Spieth (T6), and Sam Burns (also T6) make up the next tier between 14/1 and 18/1. Those odds have already shortened with Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele — both of whom would have been in the Top 5 — withdrawing on Monday.
Other notables include Sungjae Im (T66 at Pebble, T6 here in 2023) at +2,500 and Pebble Beach champion Wyndham Clark between +2,800 and +3,300. The defending U.S. Open champ finished T10 here in 2023 — his best result in five career tries.
2018 Phoenix Open champ Rickie Fowler is on the board at 50/1 while 2017 winner Gary Woodland can be had as long as 150/1.
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Waste Management Phoenix Open recent winners and odds history
Let’s take a look at some recent Waste Management Phoenix Open winners and their closing odds to win:
Scottie Scheffler is a +500 betting favorite to win the 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open.
The Waste Management Phoenix Open is played at the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course in Scottsdale, Arizona. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, the Stadium Course is a 7,266-yard Par-71, which opened in 1986 and has played host to this tournament since 1987.
Scottie Scheffler captured his second straight WM Phoenix Open title in 2023, edging out Nick Taylor by two shots. He’s the clear favorite to defend those titles this week.
The 2024 Waste Management Phoenix purse is $8.8 million, with $1.584 million going to the winner.