The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
After losing two of their last three games, the Indiana Pacers are four-point underdogs on the road against the Atlanta Hawks. While Indiana’s recent struggles — especially on defense — are a concern, Atlanta has not played well, either, with a 1-3 record over their last four games.
The offenses on both sides have continued to produce. Over the last five games, the Pacers are averaging 126.8 points per game (PPG) while the Hawks are at 117.0 PPG. Both defenses have been underwhelming, too. Indiana has the 5th-worst defensive rating, and Atlanta has the 10th-worst. This is also reflected in points allowed per game with the Hawks holding the seventh-worst mark (117.9) and the Pacers touting the third-worst total (123.8).
As you probably guessed, the game total is extremely high at 251.5. This makes betting the over a tough pick, but it’s still feasible with both offenses ranking among the top-six units.
However, the Pacers moneyline offers a much more intriguing reward at +148. How can Indiana pull off the upset? Let’s dive into the argument.
First off, Tyrese Haliburton ranks second among qualifying players in offensive rating (124.5). The Hawks’ backcourt of Trae Young (116.1) and Dejounte Murray (116.9) both have defensive ratings of over (116.0). After totaling only 12 points in his last game, Haliburton seems poised for a bounce-back performance.
Despite the poor defensive rating, the Pacers can take the three ball away, as they allow the fewest three-point attempts per game (25.8). Atlanta can tend to rely on the deep ball with 35.4 shots per game (12th). Bogdan Bogdanovic (8.3) and Young (7.1) both rank among the top-24 players in most attempted three-pointers per game.
Additionally, Indiana averages the fourth-most points in the paint per game and the sixth-most three-point attempts per game. Atlanta may lack the tools to slow the Pacers’ attack, for they have the 6th-worst mark in allowed points in the paint per game and have a mediocre perimeter defense (15th-fewest allowed three-point attempts per game).
The Hawks play similarly to Indiana with the third-quickest pace in the NBA. The Pacers, who have the quickest paces in the league, should have the ability to run and get plenty of shots up. Indiana’s offense could have the better matchup, leading to the outright win.
Two top-nine defenses collide in the Toronto Raptors–Orlando Magic matchup; Toronto has the ninth-best rating while Orlando has the second-best. The Raptors allow the 10th-fewest PPG (110.8), and the Magic surrender 106.6 PPG (4th-best).
The clear theme of this collision could be defense, hence the 215.5 total. Even with the low number, I’m still targeting the under. In the last two games when the Raptors faced top-three defenses (both against the Boston Celtics), they averaged only 99.5 PPG. Orlando has reached 115 points only once over their previous five games. Even against poor defenses, such as the Milwaukee Bucks (seventh-worst) and Brooklyn Nets (eighth-worst), the Magic’s offense struggled to get the ball rolling.
Both offenses are also among the bottom eight teams in effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Toronto averages the sixth-most points in the paint per game, but Orlando features a top-10 paint defense. The Magic mostly depend on two-point looks with only 30.5 three-point attempts per game (sixth-fewest), and the Raptors are among the top half in the league in paint defense and opponent two-point percentage.
Each squad has a quality defender who could also limit potent scorers. For example, Scottie Barnes, who leads Toronto with 20.1 PPG, could match up with Franz Wagner (104.4 defensive rating). The Raptors’ OG Anunoby (103.8 defensive rating) is an exceptional defender who could slow the Magic’s Wagner — second on the Magic with 18.5 PPG.
Neither offense has flourished, and when the top scorers could be in store for deflating performances, these units could struggle to put up points.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been shredded by injuries. Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) and Gabe Vincent (knee) will be out once again for tonight’s game against the Utah Jazz. LeBron James, who leads the team with 26.4 PPG and 6.5 assists per game (APG), is questionable with a calf injury. Of course, this is the most important news with James also leading the Lakers with a 30.1% usage rate.
As usual, LA depends on James in nearly every facet of the game. The Lakers managed to win the only game without James this season, but they did not cover the point spread. James’ status is pretty much a guessing game between now and tip-off. Either way, I like Utah’s chances of covering.
Los Angeles’ defense has been decent with the 13th-best rating in the league. The Jazz hold the 11th-best offensive rating but have the 4th-worst defensive rating. After finishing with the 12th-worst offensive rating last season, the Lakers currently have the 7th-worst offense.
Extra possessions and three-point shooting are where Utah could thrive. The Jazz average the eighth-most attempted three-pointers per game while LA surrenders the sixth-most shots from deep per game. Utah also leads the Association in offensive rebounds per game and offensive rebounding percentage. This is yet another area of worry for the Lakers, for they have the 13th-worst mark in defensive rebounding percentage and the 2nd-worst mark in offensive rebounds per game.
Los Angeles backcourt of D’Angelo Russell (115.4 rating) and Austin Reaves (116.8 rating) also hold underwhelming defensive ratings. This bodes well for the Jazz’s Jordan Clarkson (19.5 PPG) and Keyonte George (8.5 PPG), who is averaging 11.0 PPG and 8.8 APG over his previous four games thanks to elevated minutes.
With James’ uncertain status and Utah’s potential advantages in the backcourt, from three, and on the glass, the Jazz could come up with the cover.
Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
