The 2022/23 Premier League relegation dogfight is set to be an all-timer. With the final quarter of the season remaining, just four points separate bottom dwellers Southampton and 12th-place Crystal Palace.
The Eagles have flown into the fight for survival amid a dire 2023 and have opted to return Roy Hodgson to the dugout after parting ways with Patrick Vieira. They’re concerned. The majority of the sides currently battling against the drop have decided to bring in fresh ideas in the form of a new manager (or two), while Leicester, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, for now, have stuck with their current incumbents.
A thrilling conclusion to the campaign beckons.
FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Premier League season. Here’s who they think will drop to the second tier come the end of the campaign.
Projected 2022/23 Premier League table
As of 22/03/23
The supercomputer fancies Woy to work his magic in south London and projects Crystal Palace to remain 12th in the table. Hodgson’s side have a list of relegation six-pointers coming up after the break.
Still, the margin between Palace in 12th and bottom-of-the-table Southampton is predicted to extend to just eight points. The Saints are projected to earn ten more points in their final ten games, but that won’t be enough to get off the foot of the table.
They’re perhaps surprisingly going to be joined in the Championship by Nottingham Forest, who are currently 16th. Forest’s home form has kept them afloat this season, but their last-gasp defeat against Newcastle has seemingly significantly hindered their chances of survival. They boast the worst away record in the division, and they must find a way of picking up points on the road if they are to stay up.
The final team projected to go down is Bournemouth. Many expected the Cherries to succumb upon their return to the top-flight, and they’ve exceeded expectations in the eyes of many. Like Forest, they’re predicted to finish just a point adrift of safety with Everton just about retaining their Premier League status.
The Toffees have improved under Sean Dyche’s tutelage, but their tough schedule to close out the campaign means they may need a result on the final day to survive.