We are officially past the halfway point in the 2023 XFL regular season, and the playoff picture is starting to take shape heading into Week 6. Last week, we surprisingly saw the UNDER hit in two out of the four games, and two underdogs win outright on the moneyline. The biggest upset win was the Sea Dragons taking down the formerly undefeated Roughnecks 21-14 at Lumen Field despite QB Ben DiNucci throwing three interceptions. Houston couldn’t get anything going on offense and lost standout WR Jontre Kirklin to a season-ending chest injury.
Week 6 action begins with a doubleheader on Saturday, starting with the Sea Dragons going on the road to play the Guardians at 1 p.m. ET (ABC), who are still searching for their first win this season. After that at 7 p.m. ET (FX), the Battlehawks will hit the road and take on the Vipers, who picked up their first win last week against Orlando. Then on Sunday afternoon, we will see a rematch between the Brahmas and Renegades at 3 p.m. ET (ABC). Finally, the Roughnecks will look to bounce back against the Defenders on Monday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2) to wrap up another exciting week in the XFL.
Below, we’ll break down the best Week 6 bets and give out our predictions on how things could play out across the league:
XFL Week 6 picks, predictions
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
Seattle Sea Dragons at Orlando Guardians
Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET, ABC
- Spread: Sea Dragons -8.5
- Moneyline: Sea Dragons -375, Guardians +300
- Over/Under: 42.5
Seattle has been one of the hottest teams in the XFL recently, winning three-straight games after starting the season 0-2. The Sea Dragons took down the Roughnecks last week at home despite DiNucci continuing to struggle with his turnover issues. He’ll try to fix that against the Guardians, who are coming off a hard-fought loss last week where they played all three quarterbacks (Paxton Lynch, Quinten Dormady, and Quinton Flowers) and just came up short. Dormady brought a spark to the Guardians’ passing game, completing 22-of-25 passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns. Dormady could get the start this week, as he’s listed as QB1 on the Guardians’ depth chart.
However, it might not matter who is starting for the Guardians, as their offensive line has struggled through the first five weeks, allowing 21 sacks (most in the XFL). That’s not a good recipe for success against a Sea Dragons’ defense that held the Roughnecks scoreless for three quarters and made life tough for Brandon Silvers (three sacks and an interception). If DiNucci doesn’t turn over the football on Saturday, the Sea Dragons should score a lot of points against a Guardians’ defense that has allowed a league-high 152 this season. Look out for Josh Gordon and Jahcour Pearson to make big plays against this Orlando secondary.
Pick: Sea Dragons 24 (-8.5), Guardians 15
St. Louis Battlehawks at Vegas Vipers
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FX
- Spread: Battlehawks -3
- Moneyline: Battlehawks -160, Vipers +135
- Over/Under: 44.5
St. Louis is coming off a tough loss at home last week to the Defenders where it got gashed by Defenders RB Abram Smith, who had 218 yards and three touchdowns on 23 carries. However, the Battlehawks’ defense should fare better against a Vipers’ running game that has struggled to take off this season.
The Battlehawks’ offensive line struggled to protect QB A.J. McCarron in last week’s loss to the Defenders, as he was sacked five times. The Vipers had four sacks in last week’s win over the Guardians, but they gave up 32 points as well to an inconsistent offense. If St. Louis’ offensive line can protect McCarron, he should be able to find Hakeem Butler, Austin Proehl, and Darrius Shepherd. As for Vegas, Luiz Perez had his best game this season against Orlando, completing 20-of-28 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Two of his three TD passes went to speedy WR Jeff Badet, who had five receptions for 80 yards. We should expect to see a lot of points put on the board, but the Battlehawks have the edge.
Pick: Battlehawks 28 (-3), Vipers 24
San Antonio Brahmas at Arlington Renegades
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ABC
- Spread: Renegades -3
- Moneyline: Brahmas +135, Renegades -165
- Over/Under: 32.5
These two teams played each other last week at the Alamodome when the Renegades squeaked out a 12-10 win. Arlington is shockingly 3-2 this season despite their offense struggling to score points (five total touchdowns, fewest in the league). However, they have a tremendous defense that doesn’t make a ton of mistakes and forces offenses into plenty of their own.
Last week, the Renegades’ defense forced QBs Reid Sinnett and Jack Coan into three interceptions, helping them escape with a win. Sinnett started last week and was solid under center, completing 13-of-19 passes for 97 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. However, he suffered a broken foot, ending his season. This week, we could see Coan and Jawon Pass, who’s been inactive for most of the regular season. If you are a Brahmas fan, you hope Pass gets some playing time because this offense only has three completions of 20 or more passing yards this season (153 attempts). Nevertheless, both defenses should play well to give their starting QBs a chance to win on Sunday afternoon. Ultimately, we like Arlington to win but San Antonio to cover the spread.
Pick: Renegades 18, Brahmas 16 (+3)
Houston Roughnecks at DC Defenders
Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
- Spread: Defenders -2.5
- Moneyline: Roughnecks +120, Defenders -145
- Over/Under: 42
In the last game for Week 6, we have an outstanding matchup between two of the best teams in the league. Houston is looking to bounce back after being stymied by Seattle last week. The Roughnecks should get back on track but will have to do it without Jontre Kirklin, their second-best wide receiver behind Deontay Burnett.
This will be an excellent test for Greg Williams’ aggressive and opportunistic defense. Defenders CB Michael Joseph will be a player to look out for in this game, as he’s tied with Roughnecks CB Ajene Harris in interceptions (4). The Defenders will look to continue to play smash-mouth football on the ground, but the Roughnecks’ front seven is good and has allowed just 76 points this season. Even though both offenses are explosive, the defenses will step up in this contest, but the Roughnecks will walk away with the win.
Pick: Roughnecks 21 (+2.5), Defenders 18